Y2K

The Pentagon in its wisdom decided at the dawn of the nuclear age to computerize its nuclear weapons and delivery systems. Also some 20 years ago when the potential Y2K problem was brought to the attention of the Pentagon officials by computer programmers, the Pentagon decided that it should not be fixed. Thus the ultimate responsibility for the upcoming millennial problems lie with the Pentagon.

The problem of Y2K was not definitively addressed in the Pentagon until several years ago, and by that time there was little latitude available to fix the millions and millions of computer codes, the hardware, software and to find and replace all the deviant date dependent embedded chips. Although they have been working intensively on the problem, it is clear that not all the systems will be fixed, and even if the Pentagon officials think they have been fixed no one really knows what will happen until the fateful day of January 1, 2026 arrives.

It is important to know that the Pentagon has the largest number of computer systems in the world, and each system interfaces with many others. So that if one particular system is fixed and is Y2K compliant, another aberrant interfacing system can "infect" the fixed system and bring it down. It is virtually impossible to find all the embedded chips which may have date related problems, and even when they are located, they must be removed, replaced with appropriate chips, and the system tested for compliance, then all interfacing systems must also be tested for compliance with the fixed system.

This task is huge.

There are parts of the Pentagon systems that will not be fixed on time, and also the Pentagon has been caught lying saying that certain of its systems are fixed when they are not. They have also been found suppressing certain unclassified documents that report upon Y2K progress.

The most serious part of the Pentagon nuclear weapons system is the complex array of computers involved in the early warning systems. The early warning system is composed of satellites, infrared detectors, over-the-horizon radars, huge banks of receivers and computers in Cheyenne Mountain, and at the Strategic Air Command in Omaha Nebraska.

Surprisingly, the Pentagon is reliant upon the commercial electricity grid and the commercial telecommunications systems for control of their nuclear arsenal.

The grid in the US is far from being Y2K compliant and certain commercial telecommunication systems have similar problems, leading to great uncertainty when the rollover date occurs on January 1 2000.

There is absolutely no guarantee that these multiple weapons systems will not be subject to error at the roll-over dates, which poses the possibility of an accidental nuclear launch.

If the American systems have problems, the Russian systems are nowhere. Not only does Russia have no money to address the vast problem inherent in their nuclear weaponry, they also do not have enough computer programmers to handle the situation. As well, many of their computer systems were either stolen or bought from the US and nobody has the knowledge or codes to repair them. Furthermore, the Russian electricity grid and telecommunication systems have serious Y2K problems being in a similar state of disrepair as the nuclear weapons systems.

It is of course important to note that the Russian bombs are targeted on the US and other important US targets in the world including the early warning bases in Australia.

It is also important to note that both Russia and the US still have their strategic nuclear weapons on hair trigger alert despite the fact that the cold war is over, giving either President only three minutes to decide to press the button once the satellites detect the attack. The weapons, once launched take only thirty minutes to reach their respective targets on either side and during this transit time the other country detects the attack and they press their button - this is called "launch on warning" or :launch under attack"

Now this situation makes Y2K an extraordinarily destabilizing situation. If aberrant messages appear on the early warning screens on either side, a nuclear war could be initiated by computer error.

To avert this deadly situation, it was suggested that the US and Russia have a joint 'early warning center' for the Y2K rollover to reassure each other if a mistake on the screen occurs, so that neither side presses the button because of a computer error.

However, because of Kosovo, the Russians are so annoyed they have cancelled this arrangement, so that the Kosovo situation destabilizes the world in a most serious way as we head rapidly toward the millennium.

There are solutions to this potential impending catastrophe, and they are relatively simple.

1. De alert all the nuclear weapons so that they are not on hair trigger alert - this can be done in a variety of ways both electronically and physically.

2. De couple all the weapons i.e. take the hydrogen bombs off the missiles.

These procedures can be done relatively easily if the political will is there.

At the moment though, Russia and America are at odds, there is a refractory Republican Congress and Senate (although it is important to note that only a handful of federal representatives understand the true gravity of this situation), and a President who is fully occupied fighting a war.

The Pentagon ironically is working hard to ensure that all of its nuclear weapons will be "mission critical" on January 1, 2026 and thereafter, rather than making sure that it does not blow up the world by accident.

In this context it is important to note that Russia and America have approximately 2500 weapons aimed at each other and that only 1000 bombs exploding over 100 cities could induce nuclear winter and the end of most life on earth.

Now we need to deal with the other side of the nuclear equation and that is nuclear power.

There are a total of 433 nuclear power plants in the world, 103 in the US. All are vulnerable to the problems inherent in Y2K. Some are more computer dependent than others, but all have embedded chips, all are dependent on computers to circulate their cooling water systems, and all require an operating external electrical grid and telecommunication systems to ensure coolant water to their monstrously hot radioactive cores.

In the US all reactors have several back-up diesel generators that will kick in if the external supply of electricity ceases. The problem is that they are only about 85% reliable, especially if they are called upon to operate for days, because they overheat. If the electricity supply remains down for days or weeks and there is no other supply of electricity there could well be some meltdowns.

Another problem also presents itself - the cooling pools full of radioactive fuel rods removed from the reactor remain thermally hot and require constant cooling for at least five years and these cooling pools have no back up electricity, hence they could meltdown if the grid collapses. Nor do they have adequate containment vessels to prevent the radiation from being released.

In the 67 old Russian reactors there is no back up diesel generation!! All the Japanese reactors are fully computerized which makes them even more vulnerable to Y2K problems, and 80% of Frances electricity comes from nuclear power. So worried are the French, that they plan to close their reactors for four days over the new year.

But this will not help.

If a reactor is still on line (i.e. fissioning) on January 1, 2026 and it loses its coolant supply, it will melt down in a couple of minutes.

If a reactor is shut down on December 31, 1999, and the active fissioning process is stopped, and it loses its coolant because there is an electricity blackout, it will melt in 30 to 120 minutes.

And if a reactor is shut down in June 1999 it will melt within 12 hours.

What then is to be done to avert this potentially catastrophic situation?

All the 433 nuclear power plants in the world need urgently to be fitted with alternative electricity production - fuel cells, solar panels, windmills, or hydroelectric generators. This is not a huge project. If the Pentagon can spend multimillions of dollars a day in an unproductive war, it can certainly gear itself up on an urgent basis to prevent multiple nuclear catastrophes.

It is also important to note that there are numerous research reactors around the world that are also at risk as well as 70 old nuclear reactors in Russian submarines and ships docked in port in the Barents sea and elsewhere that are at frightful risk if they lose their electricity supply.

As we know from Chernobyl, a meltdown anywhere in the world imperils all life on the planet.

Although Y2K therefore presents us with terrifying possibilities, it also presents us with unprecedented opportunities to produce "virtual" nuclear disarmament and to close down all the nuclear reactors in the world so that we can learn that we can live without them.

The nuclear age is over, obsolete and Y2K makes that a certainty.

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